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by David Emanuel Elcock | Laidlaw Scholar (2025) at Trinity College Dublin, Ireland for Localise Youth Volunteering at Claremont Avenue, Glasnevin, Dublin, D11 YNR2
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Young people are statistically likely to be familiar with the role of carbon dioxide, methane and greenhouse gases in global warming and the fright around microplastics. Instead of dedicating this toolkit to the obviously and well known examples of climate change that risk an eye-roll, more nuanced but equally important climate change phenomenon are discussed. The point is to introduce the idea that the climate’s status quo is a balanced chemical reaction which can be knocked-off balance and to showcase to young people what that looks like and how disastrous the impact is on society.
For a summary on the ‘typical’ climate change discussions such as greenhouse gas emissions, c.f. The Climate Change Crisis: A Review of Its Causes and Possible Responses by A. J. Gabric in 2023 in the Atmosphere Journal. This paper provides a good introduction on the typical talking points of climate change such as the effects of elevated emissions of green house gases on extreme weather and ecological damage.
In this toolkit, four types of examples of climate change are discussed. The two on the left below relate to specific events that are yet to pass but are catastrophic whilst the two on the right discuss gradual events that have already started. The idea is to provide two classes of examples of upcoming threats that showcases the importance of humanity to get a handle on climate change whilst the other two examples (on the right) showcase how humanity is already sleepwalking into a disaster today.
Iceland, Ireland, the UK and most of mainland Europe lie at the same latitude as Siberia which is known to have temperatures as low as -70 $^o$C. Paradoxically, in Europe the temperature is much more mild which appears contradictory. The cause of this discrepancy is the transfer of imported tropical heat through the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
The AMOC acts as an oceanic radiator by transporting warm surface water from tropical regions to colder regions. Here the heat is dissipated resulting in the density of water increasing, dropping to the ocean floor and retuning towards tropical regions where it can be warmed up again, closing the circulatory loop. The warmer climate of Europe is supported by the AMOC demonstrating the importance of maintaining balanced
One of the engines to the AMOC is the Jet Stream, a part of the AMOC situated in the Golf of Mexico and along the US coast that accelerates warm water along the surface. The jet stream is fuel by Earth’s rotation and the warmer climate in tropical regions. The warm climate in tropical regions heats up the oceanic water which evaporates thus increasing the salt concentration in tropical regions. The jet stream then transports the warm and concentrated salt to colder regions. In these colder regions the salt concentration is lower giving less dense water. But, the warmer and saltier surface water provided by jet stream cools down until the heat can no longer offset the difference in density: the surface water dips down to greater depths and flows back to tropical regions.$^{[1]}$
One mechanism of climate change is the introduction of fresh water into oceans which affects the oceanic conveyer belt that is the AMOC. The melting of ice sheets, glaciers, ice caps, icebergs and ice shelves due to global warming releases fresh water into oceans. This disrupts the salt-level dependent flow of warm and cool water as the powerful jet stream’s surface water is diluted in salt concentration. Thus upon reaching cooler regions like Europe the ability for the water to drop to greater depth is reduced which risks closing the flow. Returning to the radiator analogy, fresh water is narrowing the pipes which transport the warm water which could overpower the engine (jet stream) towards a system failure: a stop of the AMOC. This would in return give Europe the same climate as Siberia thus make places like Ireland uninhabitable.$^{[1,2]}$
There is evidence emerging which suggests that the AMOC has a tipping point after which further addition of fresh water no longer weakens the flow of water but stops it entirely. Apart from measuring the strength of the flow of moving water, a recent estimate provides a deeper insight into a prospective collapse by tracking the position of the jet stream itself. Utilising satellite and sub-service oceanographic data and computational modelling a correlation was found suggesting the jet stream will gradually shift prior to the tipping point before drastically shifting over 200 km at the tipping point after which the AMOC ceases. Whilst the mechanism might be understood, the proximity to a local ice age is unknown to researchers. However, the signs to a collapse could be as short as two years according to computational models.$^{[2]}$
This examples shows that the comfort familiar to Europeans is a geological luxury which can be taken away with a two-year warning. The milder climate that is critical to European life cannot continue as it is if a local ice age initiates. From housing having insufficient insulation to pipes bursting as permafrost sets in to the increasing energy costs, Ireland and Europe more broadly would become an unrecognisable place that we currently recognise as home.
[1] Marine Copernicus, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, 2026. [2] R. M. van Westen & H. A. Dijkstra, Commun. Earth Environ., 7, 197, 2026, p. 1-11.
Humans are creatures of habit that take comfort in assuming the status quo will remain. We take for granted structures and phenomena that appear constant through are lives such as constellations, the appearance of solar eclipses and the locking of the face of the moon. However, the positions of stars in the sky moves over time-scales longer than generations meaning the constellations of today will be unrecognisable in the far future. Furthermore the moon moves from Earth as the moon is mutually phase-locking the Earth until the moon eventually appears above the same region permanently.$^{[1]}$ To clarify the last point, this means that historically the moon was closer to Earth such that solar eclipses fully blocked out the sun and that future solar eclipses will feature a brighter ring around the sun. It also means that the lunar cycle will cease upon mutual phase-locking which will impact tides and make the moon appearing in the sky a local phenomena. Likely this will introduce moon tourism of people travelling to the only region where the moon is visible.
These examples aren’t necessarily climate change problems but represent another set of problems that humanity also have to resolve. We can consider climate change to be a first test on global challenges that humankind is experiencing which will have to be addressed quickly if we are to have any change at addressing the upcoming problems addressed in this section. Whilst it is hard to pin-point exactly when these events will take place such as solar storms that risk destroying all electronics on Earth, chronologically speaking the events are listed in the most probably order below.
[1] J. Kim, IEEE, , 11$^{th}$ Annual Computational Conference, 2021.
At the time of writing there is no defence mechanism that protects Earth from a collision with an Asteroid. In fact, there is no proper detection system for finding inbound asteroids.$^{[1]}$ Even if such a detection system is finally introduced, it would remain unclear how humanity could hold of a large asteroid.$^{[2]}$
An appropriate sized asteroid could induce an event like the suspected asteroid collision that is believed to have wiped out the dinosaurs.$^{[3]}$ This could extinguish the progress that humanity has made technologically and culturally or worse, make humans go extinct. We should remind ourselves that despite the vastness of space, humanity is only able to reside long-term on Earth. Whilst Chinese astronauts are the only ones currently looking at long-term survival strategies in space, we are far from thriving without Earth and surviving when a large asteroids comes our way.$^{[4]}$ On the bright side, this problem can be solved by introducing a planetary defence system showcasing the need for research.
[1] European Space Agency, Space Safety: Asteroids and Planetary Defence, n.d., last accessed: 04/06/2026. [2] National Academies of Science Engineering and Medicine, Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies, 2010, last accessed: 04/06/2026. [3] P. Schulte, L. Alegret, I. Arenillas, J. A. Arz, P. J. Barton, P. R. Bown, T. J. Bralower, G. L. Christeson, P. Claeys, C. S. Cockell, G. S. Collins, A. Deutsch, T. J. Goldin, K. Goto, J. M. Grajales-Nishimura, R. A. F. Grieve, S. P. S. Gulick, K. R. Johnson, W. Kiessling, C. Koeberl, D. A. Kring, K. G. MacLeod, T. Matsui, J. Melosh, A. Montanari, J. V. Morgan, C. R. Neal, D. J. Nichols, R. D. Norris, E. Pierazzo, G. Ravizza, M. Rebolledo-Vieyra, W. U. Reimold, E. Robin, T. Salge, R. P. Speijer, A. R. Sweet, J. Urrutia-Fucugauchi, V. Vajda, M. T. Whalen & P. S. Willumsen, Sci., 327, 5970, 2010, p. 1214-1218. [4] Y. Gu, Natl. Sci. Rev., 9, 1, 2021, nwab219.
Our sun will die, the primary source of all energy on Earth. It fuels photosynthesis which provides Earth with oxygen, it keeps Earth at the right temperatures and make people fly great distances for holidays. But, the same source of life will decay in a spectacular way during which it initially expand and leaving Earth uninhabitable.$^{[1]}$ There is no suggestion other than evacuating the planet that humanity can suggest. However, even if we solve the problem of interstellar travel we have to recognise that every star has a finite lifetime. Hence humanity would have to jump between solar systems every solar lifecycle. This introduces a new problem…
[1] K, Zhang, W. Zhang, K. El-Badry, J. R. Lu, J. S. Bloom, E. Agol, B. S. Gaude, Q. Konopacky, N. Lebaron, S. Mao & S. Terry, Nat. Astro., 8, 2024, p.1575-1582.
The theory of relativity forbids matter to exceed the speed of light. Yet, the Hubble telescope confirmed that space is expanding and that the rate of that expansion of growing.$^{[1,2]}$ Without a speed limit of space, it is predicted that at some point the space between two points moves faster than the speed of light. This means that interstellar travel between starts will become impossible using our current understanding of physics as the expansion of space will exceed the maximum possible travel speed that can be attained. This rules out relocation of human civilisation whenever a star reaches the end of its lifespan as a long-term strategy and forces humanity to confront the restriction to interstellar travel or the problem of energy in the absence of nearby stars as energy sources.
[1] A. G. Riess, A. V. Filippenko, P. Challis, A. Clocchiatti, A. Diercks, P. M. Garnavich, R. L. Gilliland, C. J. Hogan, S. Jha, R. P. Kirshner, B. Leibundgut, M. M. Phillips, D. Reiss, B. P. Schmidt, R. A. Schommer, R. C. Smith, J. Spyromilio, C. Stubbs, N. B. Suntzeff & J. Tonry, Am. Astro. Soc., 116, 3, 1998, p. 1009-1038. [2] S. Perlmutter, G. Aldering, G. Goldhaber, R. A. Knop, P. Nugent, P. G. Castro, S. Deustua, S. Fabbro, A. Goobar, D. E. Groom, I. M. Hook, A. G. Kim, M. Y. Kim, J. C. Lee, N. J. Nunes, R. Pain, C. R. Pennypacker, R. Quimby, C. Lidman, R. S. Ellis, M. Irwin, R. G. McMahon, P. Ruiz-Lapuente, N. Walton, B. Schaefer, B. J. Boyle, A. V. Filippenko, T. Matheson, A. S. Fruchter, N. Panagia, H. J. M. Newberg, W. J. Couch & The Supernova Cosmology Project, Astro. Phys. J., 517, 1999, p. 565-589.
Suppose we find a work-around the interstellar travel problem by realising wormholes or some other method. Assuming the machine used to overcome the travelling problem is made of matter, it too will meet its demise. This is because protons (and by extension other subatomic particles) are fundamentally not stable particles.$^{[1]}$ Hence at some point in time the tools you used to solve all previous problems will literally disintegrate in front of you. The reason this hasn’t been observed so far is that the lifetime of these subatomic particles is long in the future, but it isn’t definite meaning humanity must some day confront it.
[1] A. Takenaka , K. Abe, C. Bronner, Y. Hayato, M. Ikeda, S. Imaizumi, H. Ito, J. Kameda, Y. Kataoka,Y. Kato, Y. Kishimoto, Ll. Marti, M. Miura, S. Moriyama, T. Mochizuki, Y. Nagao, M. Nakahata,Y. Nakajima, S. Nakayama, T. Okada, K. Okamoto, A. Orii, G. Pronost, H. Sekiya, M. Shiozawa,Y. Sonoda, Y. Suzuki, A. Takeda, Y. Takemoto, H. Tanaka, T. Yano, R. Akutsu, S. Han, T. Kajita,K. Okumura, T. Tashiro, R. Wang, J. Xia, D. Bravo-Berguño, L. Labarga, P. Fernandez, B. Zaldivar,F. d. M. Blaszczyk, E. Kearns, J. L. Raaf, J. L. Stone, L. Wan, T. Wester, B. W. Pointon, J. Bian,N.J. Griskevich, W. R. Kropp, S. Locke, S. Mine, M.B. Smy, H.W. Sobel, V. Takhistov, P. Weatherly,K. S. Ganezer, J. Hill, J. Y. Kim, I. T. Lim, R. G. Park, B. Bodur, K. Scholberg, C. W. Walter, A. Coffani,O. Drapier, S. El Hedri, A. Giampaolo, M. Gonin, Th.A. Mueller, P. Paganini, B. Quilain, T. Ishizuka,T. Nakamura, J. S. Jang, J. G. Learned, S. Matsuno, L. H. V. Anthony, R. P. Litchfield, A. A. Sztuc,Y. Uchida, V. Berardi, M. G. Catanesi, E. Radicioni, N. F. Calabria, L. N. Machado, G. De Rosa,G. Collazuol, F. Iacob, M. Lamoureux, N. Ospina, L. Ludovici, Y. Nishimura, S. Cao, M. Friend,T. Hasegawa, T. Ishida, M. Jakkapu, T. Kobayashi, T. Matsubara, T. Nakadaira, K. Nakamura, Y. Oyama,K. Sakashita, T. Sekiguchi, T. Tsukamoto, M. Hasegawa, Y. Isobe, H. Miyabe, Y. Nakano, T. Shiozawa,T. Sugimoto, A. T. Suzuki, Y. Takeuchi, S. Yamamoto, A. Ali, Y. Ashida, J. Feng, S. Hirota,A. K. Ichikawa, M. Jiang, T. Kikawa, M. Mori, KE. Nakamura, T. Nakaya, R. A. Wendell, K. Yasutome,N. McCauley, P. Mehta, A. Pritchard, K. M. Tsui, Y. Fukuda, Y. Itow, H. Menjo, T. Niwa, K. Sato,M. Taani, M. Tsukada, P. Mijakowski, K. Frankiewicz, C. K. Jung, G. Santucci, C. Vilela, M. J. Wilking,C. Yanagisawa, D. Fukuda, M. Harada, K. Hagiwara, T. Horai, H. Ishino, S. Ito, Y. Koshio, W. Ma,N. Piplani, S. Sakai, M. Sakuda, Y. Takahira, C. Xu, Y. Kuno, G. Barr, D. Barrow, L. Cook,C. Simpson, D. Wark, F. Nova, T. Boschi, F. Di Lodovico, S. Molina Sedgwick, S. Zsoldos, J. Y. Yang,S. J. Jenkins, J. M. McElwee, M. D. Thiesse, L. F. Thompson, H. Okazawa, Y. Choi, S.B. Kim, I. Yu,K. Nishijima, M. Koshiba, K. Iwamoto, N. Ogawa, M. Yokoyama, A. Goldsack, K. Martens,M.R. Vagins, M. Kuze, M. Tanaka, T. Yoshida, M. Inomoto, M. Ishitsuka, R. Matsumoto, K. Ohta,M. Shinoki, J. F. Martin, C. M. Nantais, H. A. Tanaka, T. Towstego, M. Hartz, A. Konaka, P. de Perio,N. W. Prouse, S. Chen, B. D. Xu, M. Posiadala-Zezula, B. Richards, B. Jamieson, J. Walker, A. Minamino, K. Okamoto, G. Pintaudi & R. Sasaki, Phys. Rev. D, 102, 11201, 2020.
It gets worse, even if you manage to stabilise atoms and subatomic particles, the machine powering the wormhole will still at some point stop working. This is because every biological, chemical and physical process has an associated entropy cost, a currency of disorder. Thermodynamics demands the the net entropy of the Universe to increase as a requirement for a process to be allowed to proceed. But at some point in time the entropy of the Universe has saturated after which no work can be extracted from any process.$^{[1]}$ All of the disorder currency will have been spent and humanity won’t be able to power any of the tools they have built. Not even will our bodies be able to operate as even biological systems and chemical reactions cannot escape what is termed Heat Death by physicists.
[1] F. C. Adams & G. Laughlin, Rev. Mod. Phys., 69, 2, 1997, p. 337-372.
Once heat death has set in and all matter has disintegrated into photonic energy, sir R. Penrose argues that time and space loses its meaning. This is as relativity suggests stable clocks require mass and without it time stops having a physical meaning. Furthermore, as space and time are part of a single phenomenon, the concept of space starts to lose its physical meaning. This is part of the Conformal Cyclical Cosmology theory which suggests the Universe could ‘reincarnate’ as heat death might stimulate a big Bang event. This would also mean that the Universe has previously undergone such a cycle.$^{[1]}$ Given life isn’t booming in the Universe it stands to reason that if this theory hold, no life form has been able to survive a Universal reset.
A Universal reset would be the ultimate demonstration of how humanity takes for granted apparent static structures and phenomenon. From the atoms that comprise us to the processes that define life back down to the space and time these processes occupy, all are up for grabs and humanity will have to navigate the hardship of survival. These challenges become increasingly more challenging and require humanity to be able to deal with climate change.
[1] R. Penrose, Front. Fundam. Phys., 1446, 2012, p. 233-243.
Iceland is known for its unique geology as it centred around a fault line. This island continues to widen by a few centimetres every year in a process that also gives it geothermal energy.$^{[1]}$ Being so close to the North Pole, certain disease vectors like Mosquitos were unable to survive meaning Icelandic people could enjoy the summer without concerns of being stung by them. Notice the past tense since this is now a thing of the past.
In as recent as 2025 it was reported that mosquitos had been spotted in Iceland for the first time, a new vector for disease. This is part of a continuing trend of boundaries between ecosystems moving as conditions warm which proliferates the migration of invasive species.$^{[2]}$ This can eradicate local species and facilitate the propagation of diseases that thrive in local regions as is a suspected origin of the Covid—19 pandemic along with most pandemics in living memory.$^{[3]}$
[1] T. Árnadóttir , B. Lund , W. Jiang , H. Geirsson , H. Björnsson , P. Einarsson & T. Sigurdsson , Geophys. J. Int., 177, 2, 2009, p. 691-716. [2] B. Hrafnkelsdottir, B. Sigurdsson, E. S. Oddsdottir, H. Sverrisson & G. Halldorsson, Agric. For. Entomol., 21, 2, p. 219-226. [3] R. E. Baker, A. S. Mahmud, I. F. Miller, M. Rajeev, F. Rasambainarivo, B. L. Rice, S. Takahashi, A. J. Tatem, C. E. Wagner, L-A. Wang, A. Wesolowski & C. J. E. Metcalf, Nat. Rev. Microbiol., 20, 2022, p. 193-205.
Human civilisation mostly resides on solid ground with a few examples of floating communities.$^{[1]}$ When the cohesion of the ground is put into question, communities are detrimentally affected e.g. earthquakes and landslides coming to mind. Unfortunately global warming through the excessive and rapid release of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and others are weakening soil integrity near polar regions.
These polar regions such as Alaska, Siberia, Greenland, Antarctica along with high altitude mountainous regions like the Andes, the Tibetan plateau and others have an abundance of permafrost. This is ground that for at least two consecutive years remains at or dips below 0 $^{o}$C.$^{[2]}$ In many of these regions, infrastructure is built on top of the permafrost from underground pipes to roads to houses and hospitals. As the global temperature rises the permafrost thaws which upsets the foundation on which this infrastructure is built which could leave communities without reliable infrastructure.
Apart from infrastructure becoming unusable in these regions, the thawing of the permafrost produces a second problem whose affects extend far beyond the geographical boundaries of the permafrost. This second problem relates to the storage capacity that permafrost has. Permafrost stores incredible quantities of organic carbon deposits. These deposits aren’t broken down by microbes in part due to the low temperatures, but as global warming increases the temperature these deposits are made accessible. The consequence of microbes feeding on the carbon deposits is the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and others which reinforce global warming, setting up a positive feedback loop.$^{[3]}$ This also results in the proliferation of microbes that can have disastrous consequences for ecosystems with risk of analogues of algae bloom equivalents occurring in which a single species of microbe grows so rapidly that it depletes local resources resulting in rapid extinction in the local ecosystem such as ponds.$^{[4]}$ These microbes could also release toxins harmful to other organisms in the ecosystem.
Unfortunately the harm of thawing permafrost extends beyond biological harm from invasive species as discussed previously. On top of the organic deposits starting to mobilise, a frightening release of toxic metals poses a serious risk to life. Mercury is one such metal which can couple to organic molecules in the body and enable it to cross the blood-brain barrier where it disrupts brain function. Evidence of toxic metal mobilisation due to permafrost thawing has already been found in regions like Alaska.$^{[5]}$ Upon release the toxic metals enter the food chain where these can build-up in organisms that later are consumed by humans. This can eventually lead to a Minamata like disaster, a mercury poisoning disaster in Japan equivalent to Mad Hatters in the UK.$^{[6]}$ With trade globalisation and geological transport opportunities such as ground water and rain the consequences can extend far beyond regions with permafrost.
Right now you are (hopefully) breathing oxygen. To be specific, you breathing di-oxygen in order to power key metabolic processes in your body that keep you alive. However, you can add another oxygen atom to di-oxygen to form ozone. This molecule will irritate your lungs and might sound like another molecules in existence, but it plays a key role in our ecosystem. You see, ozone in the stratosphere is the reason we don’t all have skin-cancer and why life doesn’t feel like living in a microwave. But, like anything in our climate, humanity has historically harmed this layer. But with enough support and urgence, humanity has actually been able to address this.
In 1985 a hole was discovered in the Ozone layer and chemists quickly discovered that ChloroFluorohydroCarbons (CFC’s) used in refrigerants played a large role in harming the ozone layer. In a rare unity the Montreal protocol was implemented which mandated a global phasing-out on the use of CFC’s. The idea was that CFC’s that ended up in a landfill could leak into the atmosphere and cause further harm to the ozone layer, slowing its regeneration.$^{[7]}$ To this date, the Montreal protocol remains the only universally adopted treaty. If the other stories in this toolkit leave you worried about the prospect of cooperation, remember that humanity managed to unite itself in order to fix the ozone layer. There is no reason we cannot replicate the success of that campaign and it might be a good case to investigate further.
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